Is It "All Good" For Haley?

The latest Rasmussen poll shows South Carolina Republican State Representative Nikki Haley “has expanded her lead — to 16 percentage points from 14 percentage points” over the Democratic nominee State Senator Vincent Sheheen.   

Haley recorded 52 percent support from the telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted Aug. 25, while Sheheen recorded 36 percent. One in ten voters remained undecided, while 3 percent support another candidate.

Haley has the support of 86 percent of Republicans while Sheheen had the support of 72 percent of Democrats. Haley won independents by a 13 percentage point margin.

Haley is also seen as a more favorable candidate than Sheheen. Thirty percent of those surveyed have a very favorable view of Haley, while 13 percent view her very unfavorably. Sheheen was viewed very favorably by 18 percent of voters while 11 percent viewed him very unfavorably.

The Haley people must be looking at this as a “glass half empty” poll.

With tremendously higher name recognition (thanks to the national media, including South Carolina favorite Fox News, a Newsweek cover and, of course, Sarah Palin), one would think that Haley’s numbers would be higher.  Although Sheheen really isn’t close, 52% for Haley seems very pale.

The “double-digit lead” should be more like a 20+% margin rather than a pretty anemic 16% in one of the reddest of the red states.  After all, she’s a “star,” she’s “the future of southern politics” and she’s “the Sarah Palin of the lower 48.”  Only 52%?

The “favorable” numbers aren’t as important as the “unfavorable.”  Both candidates are in good shape here, but Haley needs more people to associate Sheheen with national Democrats and kick that number up into the 30-40% range.

The Dems are gonna target Nikki Haley in the next two months and they’ll have help from establishment state GOP luminaries who are ticked off at her success and/or fear her in the Governor’s Office.  A 16 point lead will evaporate in a hurry once state and national Democrat money pours into the state.  With that cash will come microscopic scrutiny on Haley’s personal income tax foibles and higher visibility for Vincent Sheheen.

Haley losing the governorship to Sheheen in November is more unlikely and would be a greater upset than her winning the nomination in June.  I don’t expect that to happen, but at this point in the campaign, I just wonder why she isn’t doing better.

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7 comments

  1. spy , have ya heard that a whole bunch of upstate mayors endorsed Sheheen the other day.
    nikki may be popular among the columbia crowd. she’s popular in the media but that ain’t everything you know.

    most people aren’t even paying attention yet. primaries don’t attract the masses. who’s got a land line to participate in polls anymore?????

    have you “done a poll” lately?

    have any of your readers done a phone poll lately?

    these numbers are put out as press releases via the political camps. they are not real.

    november is when this thing will be said and done. no sooner.

    and for the record, a lot of people are noticinig haley mimicks the whole sanfraud thing. people are really sick of him. people lost trust in him. she can’t seperate herself from him… and what if, the real truth comes out in the meantime about markie mark’s big adventure in south america??

    then haley is a limp duck , doomed to failure.

    i believe right wins. i believe sheheen will overwhelmingly defeat haley, not because he is right ( he isn’t), but because she is sanfraud in a skirt.

    yous got your opinion.
    i’s got mine.

    you do by the way, do a great job on your blog reporting about political “conditions” and ” winds”. thank you.

    Like

  2. Mend the fence or build the bridge with Jim DeMint now!
    That matter has to be taken care of. If Jim won’t come to
    you, then you go to him. I want a close and personal
    relationship here.

    Like

  3. I think Nikki is building some momentum yet but won’t be fully realized until people start paying attention.

    Why do I get the impression that all the “Sanfraud in a skirt” postings are coming from just one or two people?

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  4. A 16 point lead will evaporate in a hurry once state and national Democrat money pours into the state.

    “State and National Democrat money” is on par with the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus. It makes for a nice story to tell the volunteers to gin up support, but in reality, it doesn’t actually exist…

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  5. Tommy, many many citizens think Haley is Sanfraud all dressed up , or the ” second coming”. After all, it’s rumored she will be employing her to coach her and guide her ” restructuring”.

    But Haley = Sanfraud in a lot of people’s eyes.
    She really is not an ole timey Conservative Republican.

    That is why you hear it alot. Many people say it because we all believe it. Our eyes are open and we ain’t asleep. We also don’t believe in destroying the country like Mark Sanfraud did.

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    • Sounds more like you have a philosophical difference with small government politicians.

      Unfortunately for many of her disparagers, she’s the energizer bunny compared to Sanford’s lazy approach to getting things done in politics (which apparently included his going to South America a lot).

      Haley will help us get things done to break the stranglehold the good ol’ boy fascists like Jake Knotts and Glenn McConnell have on this state. After that, it’s going to be up to the people to push the reform agenda.

      Like

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